Force Balance Overview
Iran Shahed Fleet
80,000–100,000
All variants incl. Shahed-131/136/238, Arash, Karrar
Ballistic Missiles
~1,500
Remaining post-June 2025
Target Theaters
5+
Israel, UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia
Monthly Drone Production
200–500/mo
Iran domestic; Russia: 5,000/mo (Alabuga)
Monthly Missile Production
~100/mo
Ballistic missile output
Coalition Interceptors (incl. APKWS)
25,000–28,000
~20K APKWS II / FALCO (~$28K/shot) + 5–8K traditional ($0.5–2M/shot)
Monthly Interceptor Production
200–300/mo
All types combined — cannot surge quickly
Cost Per Iranian Drone
$20K–50K
Shahed-136: $35K avg
Cost Per Intercept (Avg)
$0.5M–2M
Weighted average — 14:1 to 100:1 attacker advantage
Bullfrog Cost Per Kill
$10
7.62mm NATO — 3,500:1 defender advantage
Interactive Scenario Simulator
Model Iranian drone and missile attacks against coalition air defenses over a 30-day campaign. Adjust attack intensity, defense posture, and Bullfrog deployment to see real-time impact on interceptor magazine depth, penetration rates, and defense costs. Select a preset scenario or build your own.
ATTACK PARAMETERS
DEFENSE PARAMETERS
30-Day Attrition Model
Total Launched
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Total Intercepted
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Getting Through
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Penetration Rate
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Interceptor Depletion
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Defense Cost
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Attack Cost
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Cost Exchange Ratio
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Deploy Bullfrog systems to see impact
Estimated Interceptor Stockpile Post-June 2025
Cost Per Intercept by System
* Iron Beam per-shot cost reflects electricity only. System procurement cost is estimated at $50–100M per laser unit. Currently weather-limited (degraded in rain, dust, sandstorms).
† APKWS per-round cost ($28K) is guidance kit + rocket motor + warhead only. Requires a launch platform with laser designator. Ground-based C-UAS systems (EAGLS: ~$4.8M/unit; VAMPIRE: ~$2.9M/unit) or aircraft ($28–90M). Not a standalone system.
Historical Attack Data
| Event | Date | Drones | BMs | CMs | Total | Int. Rate | Hits | Def. Cost | Atk. Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| True Promise I | Apr 2024 | 170 | 120 | 30 | 320 | 99% | ~2–7 | $1.0–1.3B | $80–120M |
| True Promise II | Oct 2024 | 0 | ~200 | 0 | ~200 | ~78% | ~45 | $0.8–1.5B | $35–80M |
| Rising Lion | Jun 2025 | ~12,000 | ~6,300 | — | ~18,300 | ~86–99% | ~200–900 | $8–20B | $0.5–2B |
| Houthi Campaign | 2023–now | ~400+ | ~200+ | ~100+ | ~700+ | ~70–85% | Multiple | $2–4B+ | $50–150M |
Key Insights
1. Iran has an estimated 80,000–100,000 Shaheds across all variants — not the 3,000–10,000 "long-range strike" figure from conservative think tank estimates.
2. Operation Epic Fury (Feb 28, 2026) has Iran hitting UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Saudi bases alongside Israel — splitting coalition defenses across 5+ theaters.
3. April 2024's 99% intercept rate was an outlier: telegraphed attack, 9-hour drone flight time, 6-nation coalition, limited 320-weapon salvo.
4. June 2025 consumed 25% of US THAAD stockpile in 12 days defending Israel alone.
5. At 80,000 drones and 500/month production, Iran can sustain 2,500+ drones per day.
6. Iron Beam laser ($2–5/shot electricity cost) appears economically sustainable per-shot — but each laser director unit costs $50–100M to procure, is weather-limited (degraded in rain, dust, sandstorms), and only 1–2 units are operational worldwide, all in Israel. Zero laser defense exists at Gulf bases. For comparison, 100 Bullfrog systems ($50M total) defend 100 sites; 1 Iron Beam ($75M) defends 1 site.
7. Cost exchange ratio fundamentally favors the attacker: $35K drone vs $500K–4M to intercept.
8. APKWS II guided rockets / AGR-20 FALCO (~$28K/shot) are the coalition's cost-effective kinetic counter.
9. Multi-theater pressure forces defenders to spread interceptors across 5,000+ km of front.
10. Bullfrog inverts the cost equation. At $10/kill using 7.62mm NATO, the defender's cost advantage is 3,500:1 against a $35K Shahed. This is the first system where destroying the threat costs less than the electricity to charge the drone.
11. Deployment speed. At 400 lbs per system with <30-minute operator training, a country can stand up a drone defense perimeter in days, not years. Compare: one Patriot battery requires 6 trucks, 90 soldiers, and months of training.